On May 1st, I posed the LJ entry, I_believe_we_are_within_60_days_of_recession_bottom.

Today some of the top economist are saying...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In another hopeful sign that the worst recession in generations is finally easing, the government estimated Friday that fewer jobs were lost in July than in any month in nearly a year.

"We view it as a clear signal that the economy was emerging from the recession in July," wrote Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital.

Economists were particularly encouraged that the average work week rose for the first time since August 2008.

I resigned myself to be a skinny puppy living with the fat cats a long time ago. I am mostly comfortable with such things. I especially love Wall Street numbers. There are so many of them and the patterns are endless. I am not bogged down with a lot of moral sensibilities that would get in the way of such things like a lot of my more pure artist friends. Numbers are manifestations of the divine and most Republicans do not even know how to count with any sense of respect. I say they are not worthy to hoard them all.

Like a lot of people I lost a lot of disposable income to things like Marriage, Divorce, Moving, Courts, College, Life...

I have only recently been able to get back into the stock market. I started again the end of last summer.

Here are the results so far for the last 10 months.

I am on average buying and selling stocks in 163 days. Every time I am selling I am averaging 28.3% net increase after fees etc.

This means I will do a little more than double my money in 3 cycles or about every 489 days at my current rate. I am hoping to increase this rate as new formulas improve the ROI.

I do not have a lot of money to invest so this is definitely hobby time at the moment and nothing to really be that excited about. That said I have been having fun sharing tips and thoughts with my friend Ashkelon. He also has been doing well. It helped fund the new Soriah album which is unfuckingbelievable. I got a tasty free home cooked dinner out of Ash for some tips as well.

I was wondering if anyone else would like to talk about such things.

Here is what it cost me to start.

I started with about 5 positions (5 different stocks.) For each company I bought between $200-$400 worth of shares. I think my total start up costs were about $1200.

I put more money in when I have it. As I buy and sell stocks I buy more positions and invest a little more. I could withdraw some or all of it and have the cash in hand in about 4 business days if I needed to. I use Bank of America Investment Services cause it was easy with my bank. Others I know use Etrade. It costs me $10 a trade. So to buy and sell a position costs $20. You will also get taxed on dividends and the sell of a stock when applicable. My Tax Rate seems similar to what I see on my W-2 so that is not a huge deal to me.

Next you have to figure out what to buy. If you do not know how to do this I can help. It only takes a little bit of time when you are hunting for stocks. Once they are purchased you can set up orders a head of time to buy and sell them at certain points. I spend time watching the patterns cause I like it but you do not have to.

This is a fun hobby for me and if anyone cares let me know. I am happy to help.

I believe we are within 60 days of recession bottom. I predict by third QTR our GDP will start heading in the viable direction.

I will not really have a sense of when the recession will be over till I see the new GDP patterns.

There are lots of boring number reasons, which are near and dear to my heart, that cause me to believe this.

A few here:

·         Stock numbers and patterns

·         2009 QTR 1 profits / or better than expected results

·         China’s history making, amazing economic performance

·         Initial unemployment filings are down 3 consecutive weeks by 5 digits.

·         Stimulus Performance indicators

I can go on in more detail if anyone asks over drinks. 

PS. Great time to buy if you can. If anyone cares my last purchase was DYN. Get it below 2 if you can.

Let war crimes be bygones

We don't need to round up a few Bush-era criminals to settle political scores. We just need some truth, and then we need good train service.

By Garrison Keillor

April 29, 2009 | I sat next to Ted Stevens at a Washington dinner years ago and found him unpleasant in a raspy, cartoonish way, but I was happy to see his conviction thrown out. A muddy case, a friend doing work on the senator's house perhaps in exchange for favors in Washington, and I say, have mercy. Let him go fishing in the cold, clear rivers of Alaska and examine his conscience, as we all do in our better hours, and let us all move on to something more promising.

I feel similarly about the Bush people whom some Democrats want to charge with war crimes. The widespread waterboarding and other acts of torture carried out in secret CIA prisons are no small matter. The free play of sadism on the helpless in the name of national service is not to be ignored. What's needed is a fair and thorough congressional investigation. Subpoena witnesses and lay the whole wretched business out on the public record. Look into the heart of darkness and meditate on it. But don't round up a few symbolic suspects and throw the book at them and let all the others go free. Which is what would happen if we launch a criminal prosecution.

What's needed here is not punishment, but truth. When I hear Democrats talk about "holding them responsible," I smell the sour righteousness of the victorious lording it over the vanquished. The guy they really want to put on trial is the old brush-cutter of Crawford, or else the old grouse hunter of Wyoming. They're the guys who signed off on those memos authorizing torture. The buck stopped at their desks.

Holding the Bush administration responsible for torture would give us some high political drama that would feed the media goat for the next two years and also sap the body politic. The healthcare system would go unfixed, schools would crumble, basic public services would deteriorate, all so that the left could have at the right. I am an old museum-quality Northern liberal, and I know something about the righteousness of my confreres. I've been with old lefty friends who can get emotional about the Haymarket bombing in Chicago and the innocent men railroaded to the gallows, but dear hearts, it happened in 1886. Let's move on.

Retribution is not smart politics. That's part of what killed Rudy Giuliani's run for president, the voters' sense that he was possessed of a cruel urge to pay back old debts. He was meaner than we want a president to be. I agree with Sen. John McCain when he says, "We need to put this behind us; we need to move forward."

Remember that the country was in high post-9/11 jitters when the dreadful memoranda were written by the lawyers whom some Democrats want to haul into court. Apocalyptic visions were afloat of subway bombings, germ warfare, nuclear devices wiping out a major city -- I remember walking around Manhattan and thinking much too vividly about such things -- and in that atmosphere of painful vulnerability, the great bustling city practically indefensible, zealous men might consider desperate measures in the name of security. As Orwell said, "We sleep safe in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." I think the American electorate knew whom they reelected in 2004. Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney did not run on a human-rights platform. They ran as rough men who would guard our sleep. So go talk to the voters of Ohio about war crimes.

Rather than square off in a bloody battle over war crimes, let's return decent train service to the Midwest and test out the German maglev (magnetic levitation) system -- the 360 mph trains -- and connect Chicago and St. Paul-Minneapolis, Cleveland, Detroit, Omaha, Kansas City. Let's restore education to the public schools so that our kids get a chance to hear Mozart and learn French.

I'm in Washington today for the Poetry Out Loud program, run by the National Endowment for the Arts. Your tax dollars spent to bring 53 high school kids (out of 300,000 who competed for the honor) to recite poetry (Shakespeare, Donne, Eliot, Billy Collins), the winner to get a $20,000 scholarship. It's a beautiful event. Special Olympics for English majors. I would forgo the pleasures of tormenting a few malefactors for the rightness of hearing a kid from Newark stand up and give an impassioned recitation of "When in Disgrace With Fortune and Men's Eyes."

(Garrison Keillor is the author of a new Lake Wobegon novel, "Liberty," published by Viking.)

© 2009 by Garrison Keillor. All rights reserved. Distributed by Tribune Media Services, Inc

In an article ( www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-compliment-guys-13-mar13,0,6849324.story  ) I found via Salon, a small bit of social controversy has been created by two sophomores giving compliments at a college campus every Wednesday for two hours. There is question about their intent and the impact it has on those who are receiving the compliments. There is the obvious discourse on male female relations as it relates to boundaries, feminism and general interpersonal relationships. I think I am less interested in those things and more interested on the impact it has on the two young men. 

 To understand the true nature of subjects pertaining to society, etiquette one must understand nuances.

A well done compliment could be compared to a well fitted suit. They take quality, good form, style, time and attention to detail. I suspect these two gentle men are still perfecting the art of a compliment. What an interesting crash course they are giving themselves. Compliments should always be sincere and never forced. If you asked me to give 30 compliments in an hour to random strangers, I suspect I could give 10 sincere quality compliments, 10 average compliments and undoubtedly 10 compliments would lack the quality to absolutely ensure the recipient knew the nature of the complement well enough to not be offended. I wonder if I did this once a week for a year how much this ratio would change.

When I read this article I do not ponder the impact these two young men are having on others as I do on themselves. It would be my hope that when they are done with this little gig, they will have mastered this art form. So when they do want to give a real complement there will be no question of intent and it will be received well. If all college students could adeptly perform this deceivingly not so simple act after graduation, I think the world would be a better place.

It can be a lot of work throwing a party but you all made it worth it.

It was an honor for Jess and I to serve all of you on Santicon.

Thank you all for first coming to our party. We both had a great time and you all made our start a lot of fun. So many of you were generous with bringing us supplies, treats, cooking skills and your enthusiasm

A short list of honorable mentions.

Special thanks to Tommy and Jerry for showing up early and cooking pancakes and bacon!

Super deluxe delish dishes by Shannon and Grant

Lots of people brought champagne and oj so we could keep the mimosa's flowing.

I didn't know I like vegan donuts. Thanks Nona!

M's grab bag of goodness was a fun surprise.

And everyone who brought something even if it was just yourself in a great costume.

Thank you. You made the start of our Santicon fanfuckingtastic.

Andrew